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The first half market quite obviously is a short time frame market. For example, red hot offenses on paper can take time to build combination and therefore lack rhythm. These types of changes on the run can make an outcome far less predictable. There is often value in this tactic that sticks around until the public opinion changes. We know the court of public opinion is wrong as often as it is right. In the early part of the season bettors tend to be exuberant in betting popular opinion. They will often unveil a tactic not seen in the regular season. In fact scoring in NFL playoffs games is about 3% higher than the regular season. Take an NFL 3.5 point first half favorite. As we know scoring in the NFL happens in a nonlinear way, meaning just because the game is played in two halves doesn’t mean the scoring will happen that way
The Take Home: Take note of a teams schedule. The Take Home: To spot weakness via inefficiency look for low interest games for example an obscure Saturday afternoon college football game. Another example of a potential slow start would be an NFL team coming off a short week. A team coming off an overtime game the night before may be sluggish the next night, particularly if they are on the road and have had to travel on game day. Deciphering which one has the most effect on a given day in a given game is the art of first half point spread betting. In other cases impending weather which may arrive during a game can slow scoring or the effect of a prevailing wind may mean scoring to one end is more likely. Whether it be the favorite or the underdog an unexpectedly slow start will effect all first half betting markets
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